In a week in which stock markets moved 1 percent or more on four separate days, mortgage markets displayed a relative calmness that helped pull rates lower.

It was the second consecutive week that mortgage rates improved in Cincinnati. 

Last week’s biggest story came Monday when the housing bill was passed into law.  The new law provides lifelines to the housing market’s far-reaching corners including to homeowners, to lenders, and to mortgage-bond securitizers like Fannie Mae.

To the mortgage markets, the law adds stability to the system.  Because the severity of losses is likely to reduce, mortgage debt is suddenly more attractive to global investors which includes pension funds, hedge funds, and other nations. 

With fewer mortgage-related losses expected, demand for mortgage debt increased and that helped pressure mortgage rates lower.

There was other big news last week, too, and it came in the form of employment data. 

For the seventh straight month, the economy lost jobs and it has now shed close to a half-million jobs so far this year — a minuscule one-third-of-one-percent of the entire U.S. workforce.

Despite that smallness, though, unemployment among Americans is a trend worth watching. 

When fewer Americans are working, fewer Americans are spending and that can slow down the U.S. economy.  For now, this sort of mild slowdown appears to be leading mortgage rates lower but too many lost jobs could reverse the trend.

This week, there are two big events on the calendar — Monday’s Personal Spending and Personal Income figures, and Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Fed is widely expected to hold the Federal Funds Rate at 2.000 percent but — as is always the case — it’s not what the Fed does, it’s what the Fed says.  If the Fed talks tough against inflation, expect mortgage rates to rise.

(Images courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Mortgage rates soared in Cincinnati last week as mortgage markets experienced a 4-day freefall. 

By the end of the trading week, conforming mortgage rates had jumped by as much as 0.500 percent.

The spike in rates can’t be pinned on any one factor, but 3 contributing factors include:

1. The lingering impact of high energy prices on inflation
2. The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar
3. A rally in the financial sector, marking a return to risk-taking

Inflation and a weak dollar both devalue mortgage repayments, a well-chronicled relationship on this Web site.  In short, when mortgage bond investors find that their repayments are worth less, they demand a higher return.  This causes mortgage rates to rise.

But, it wasn’t inflation or the dollar that caused the majority of the damage to mortgage rates last week — it was the rally in the financial sector.

Rates had edged higher Tuesday on the inflation data but it wasn’t until Wednesday’s morning stronger-than-expected announcement from banking leader Well Fargo that mortgage rates really started to spike. 

In its quarterly report, Wells Fargo said that its balance sheet was strong and that it planned to increase shareholder dividends.  The rosy announcement sparked a strong demand for all things financial and — by day’s end — the sector scored a 12.3 percent gain on Wall Street. 

It was the largest one-day gain in financial stocks ever.

Then, following Wednesday’s rally, financials picked up additional momentum and ended up closing out the week higher by 21 percent. 

Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers, a large chunk of the money that fueled the rally came out of from the mortgage bond market. 

As investors looked for cash to buy financial stocks, many chose to sell mortgage bond holdings, creating excess supply.  More supply leads prices lower and, in the mortgage world, when prices fall, rates go up. 

Because mortgage bond prices fell a lot last week, mortgage rates rose by a lot.

This week, expect momentum to be The Big Story.  There is little data beyond Thursday and Friday’s Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales, respectively, and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index.  And only a few members of the Fed will be speaking in public.

The one bright spot last week was falling oil prices. 

After an 11 percent decline, Americans are waking up this morning to lower gas prices.  This is anti-inflationary and could help tug mortgage rates lower.

Mortgage rates fell slightly in a week that included a bank failure, more oil price spikes, and questions about the health of the nations’ mortgage market. 

Rates would have fallen more for Cincinnati residents if not for a late-Friday sell-off that added 0.125 percent to most products.

As financial markets fell under stress, most people missed the strong points that emerged about the U.S. economy last week:

• Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits
• Wal-Mart reported stronger-than-expected sales
• Consumer confidence rose for the first time in 7 months

And, also worth noting: homes under contract slipped but remained above the lowest levels of the year, suggesting a potential housing floor.

But, the biggest story of last week was the stock-price collapse and subsequent pressure on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  It should be the biggest story of this week, too. 

So far, Fannie and Freddie’s issues appear to be more psychological in nature than fundamental, but to an already roiled market, negative perception can quickly become reality.  This is one of the biggest reasons why both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury made public statements Sunday in support of Fannie and Freddie, and in advance of the Asian markets’ opening.

Other events that may move markets this week include Retail Sales data on Tuesday, consumer inflation data on Wednesday and Ben Bernanke’s two-day testimony to Congress which takes place over both Tuesday and Wednesday.

It’s unclear in which direction mortgage rates will go, but because the markets are on-edge, expect rate movements to be sharp and quick.  In other words, if you’re in the market for a mortgage this week and you see a rate and payment you like, don’t mess around with it — just get it locked.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

Mortgage rates moved higher in Cincinnati last week on lingering concerns about inflation, the fourth straight week in which rates rose.

Mortgage rates are now as high as they’ve been since October 2007.

Because inflation devalues mortgage bonds, market players are quick to unload them when signs of inflation are present.  

Last week, there were several such signs:

1. The American Consumer is spending undettered despite economic uncertainty
2. The Cost of Living is rising faster than expected
3. The Federal Reserve reports that some business are passing higher costs on to consumers

Hence, the higher mortgage rates.

This week, only Tuesday registers as a “big data day” with reports on housing, productivity, and Producer Price Index — the “Business Cost of Living” report.  

There will be four members of the Federal Reserve speaking, though, and that will add some volatility to the market.  Fed Chairman Bernanke is among the speakers, addressing Congress this morning at 10:00 A.M. ET.

So, expect mortgage rates to continue to jump and dip in the Queen City this week, taking their cues from inflation.  More inflation means higher rates and a slowing economy should cause rates to retreat. 

(Image Courtesy: LA Times)

There was no rest for the mortgage-rate weary last week. 

As mortgage bonds sold off early in the week, sharp rate hikes followed. A steady stream of better-than-expected economic reports had re-ignited inflation fears, drawing money from the bond market.

On Friday, however, the money flow reversed on a triple threat to the U.S. economy:

1. The Unemployment Rate took its biggest one-month jump in 22 years
2. Oil made its biggest one-day gain
3. The U.S. dollar lost a lot of value

By themselves, each of these events normally would be bad for mortgage rates but the Friday combination of all three led to a huge stock sell-off and renewed demand for bonds — including the mortgage-backed kind. 

Despite Friday’s reversal, mortgage rates were higher on the week, overall.

This week, there won’t be much economic data this week but there will be six Federal Reserve members making speeches to the public. 

The most anticipated of the set is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s address Monday evening on the topic of “inflation”.  Markets will be closed when Bernanke speaks so expect a delayed market reaction Tuesday morning.

Throughout the week, markets should continue their long-standing battle between the fears of inflation and the fear of recession.  It’s the same back-and-forth that we’ve seen since late-2007.

It’s also the primary reason why mortgage rates rarely stay still anymore.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

The market optimism that had pushed mortgage rates lower since late-March reversed last week on ever-rising oil prices and a bleak outlook from the Federal Reserve. 

When gas prices reached $4.01 around Cincinnati Friday, it re-ignited inflation concerns and inflation, you’ll remember, is the enemy of mortgage rates.

As expected, mortgage rates spiked into Friday’s market close.

Markets were closed for Memorial Day but re-open this morning with traders feeling apprehensive about mortgage market investments. There are many reasons to park money elsewhere, after all.

1. The U.S. dollar is trolling near all-time lows against the Euro
2. Oil markets are returning incredibly high rates of return
3. Big banks are still writing off large mortgage losses

All three of these reasons reduce demand for mortgage bonds and — because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction of mortgage bond prices — mortgage rates rise.

This week, a few inflation-related data points will cross the wires including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — PCE.

PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures and it measures the cost of living for ordinary people. It’s the Fed’s preferred measurement because PCE accounts for Americans buying more chicken when meat gets expensive, or buying more fruits when vegetables get expensive, et cetera.

PCE is different from the Consumer Price Index because CPI is a “fixed” basket of products.

If PCE is running high, expect the exodus from mortgage bonds to continue and rates to run higher. If PCE is flat or lower, mortgage rates should fall.

(Image courtesy: Gasbuddy.com)

It takes 18.5 years for the principal portion of your mortgage to outweigh the interest portion.

For some perspective: If you took a new, 30-year fixed mortgage when the Reds last won the World Series, you’d still be to the left of that arrow for another 11 months.