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	<title>Life In Queen City &#187; Wall Street</title>
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		<title>Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates</title>
		<link>http://www.lifeinqueencity.com/2010/01/05/looking-at-the-2010-predictions-for-housing-markets-and-mortgage-rates/</link>
		<comments>http://www.lifeinqueencity.com/2010/01/05/looking-at-the-2010-predictions-for-housing-markets-and-mortgage-rates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:45:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan Green</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Predictions,Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.lifeinqueencity.com/2010/01/05/looking-at-the-2010-predictions-for-housing-markets-and-mortgage-rates/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There's a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what's coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Dan Green and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.-->
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black; float: right; margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" title="2010 housing and mortgage predictions are guesses" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/crystal-ball.png" alt="2010 housing and mortgage predictions are guesses" width="220" height="246" />2010 is just a few days old and already the &#8220;experts&#8221; are making predictions for the year.</p>
<p>Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:</p>
<ul>
<li>Home prices <a title="CNNMoney story on 2010 home prices" href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/31/real_estate/home_price_drop/index.htm" target="_blank">will fall in 2010</a></li>
<li>Home prices <a title="USA Today story on rising home values" href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-11-13-realtors-rising-home-prices_N.htm" target="_blank">will rise in 2010</a></li>
<li>Mortgage rates <a title="Washington Post story on mortgage rates in 2010" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/25/AR2009122501652.html" target="_blank">will rise in 2010</a></li>
<li>Mortgage rates <a title="Morgan Stanley predicts 8% rates in 2010" href="http://business.nashvillepost.com/2009/12/29/morgan-stanley-mortgage-rates-to-jump-in-10/" target="_blank">will rise by a lot</a> in 2010</li>
</ul>
<p>Given how varied their outlooks, it&#8217;s clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it&#8217;s a guess nonetheless.</p>
<p>Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn&#8217;t fall.&nbsp; Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction <em>was</em> fulfilled.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what&#8217;s coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.</p>
<p>The only thing that&#8217;s certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there&#8217;s a lot of good &#8220;deals&#8221; in housing. Make the most of what&#8217;s out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.</p>
<p>Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.</p>
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